Will Israel control Rafah by the end of September?
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Ṁ1kṀ1.8kresolved Jan 2
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This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of September.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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This market hasn't gotten trades in a while, but it's not clear to me that Israel ever held clear control of the "vast majority" of Rafah at any point? Most maps I see of the ground operations never go too far past Rafah crossing, and even if they did go farther it's unclear they exerted "control", although I'm not sure what the criteria is for that.
@Noah I could definitely be wrong here, but interested in your ruling.