$300M subsidy: Did Israel bomb an evacuation route?
21
337
750
2025
47%
chance

Background:

There was a blast on the 13th of October on the evacuation route on Salah al-Din street.

Gaza health ministry says killed 70 people.

This was the day after the IDF's 24 hour notice for combat operations.

Hamas and the Israeli military have blamed each other for the blast

_____________________________________

Resolution criteria:

(I would appreciate advice on a more objective resolution criteria and will update the criteria accordingly)

I will not bet in this market.

I will make a judgement based on arguments in the comments and a critical reading of many sources, including the following:

  1. Post war report from amnesty international

    Eg: https://www.amnesty.org/en/documents/mde21/1178/2015/en/

  2. Findings from Isreal's Military Advocate General's Corps

    More about them here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_Advocate_General

    Eg: https://www.idf.il/en/mini-sites/military-advocate-general-s-corps/mag-corps-press-release-update-2-dec-2014

  3. Official Palestinian reports

  4. Offical reports from other governments

Market resolution goes based on what I expect the median informed, intelligent person reading the same evidence would come away with.

If I judge there is not a preponderance of evidence pointing one way or another, I'll resolve NA.

I would appreciate recommendations of other high quality sources to add to the list.

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sold Ṁ108 NO

I am pretty sure it's no but selling because I expect it to be N/A and I want money for other things.

Is there a substantive claim under dispute, or just details of one specific bombing? https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213579692/israel-gaza-evacuation-south-attacks

reposted

Is there a substantive claim under dispute, or just details of one specific bombing? https://www.npr.org/2023/11/17/1213579692/israel-gaza-evacuation-south-attacks

I think the chances are we'll never have full clarity here. How will it resolve if that is the case?

@YairHalberstadt6519 yeah forgot to include that.

If I judge there is not a preponderance of evidence pointing one way or another, I'll resolve NA.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@Daniel_MC This will probably resolve N/A or no, most likely N/A, seems very unlikely to resolve yes in any case.

Some sources:

IDF response:

https://x.com/IDF/status/1713404793790550313?s=20

Guardian

"A convoy of vehicles carrying fleeing civilians in Gaza that was hit by a deadly airstrike was travelling on one of the two roads identified by the Israeli army as “safe routes” to the southern half of the strip, according to analysis."

"The Forensic Architecture investigative unit at the Palestinian human rights organisation Al-Haq used aerial photos and social media posts to geolocate the site of the strike, sharing its findings with the Guardian. The BBC’s Verify unit came to the same conclusion."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/14/gaza-civilians-afraid-to-leave-home-after-bombing-of-safe-routes

ABC (Australian public broadcaster)

"both Hamas and the Israeli military have blamed each other for a blast which killed many civilians.

On October 13, an estimated 70 Palestinians who were trying to evacuate south were killed in an explosion on the Israeli-designated "safe route" out of northern Gaza."

"The Israeli military responded with an allegation that the explosion was a roadside bomb but used different video from another location to substantiate its claim."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-10-19/gaza-hospital-blast-evidence-israel-palestinian-islamic-jihad/102995432

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