Will an AI-amplified human team be able to code a better assistant AI within a day by June 2024?
Will an AI-amplified human team be able to code a better assistant AI within a day by June 2024?
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1kṀ3277resolved Jun 3
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The assistant AI has to be better to the original one by all regards (except memory and compute).
This market will be decided by the resolution of a bet between Kabir Kumar and me (discussion here: https://discordapp.com/channels/1101560152303353907/1101562301972234241/1136622232236458016).
On June 2024, we will consider together if it happened. If the evidence is ambiguous, we'll ask our online communities to decide.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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