Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if the Institute for the Study of War or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025, 00:00 EET.

For the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.

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