Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
21
1kṀ22222026
2%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
More likely to resolve YES if:
Russian officals control the borders into and out of ukraine
The ukrainian government no longer exists
The ukrainian government exists only in exile
Wikipedia articles about the war say that it is over and say that russias victory was decisive
More likely to resolves NO if:
The situation is largely similar to today or more favorable for ukraine
The government of Ukraine still controls some territory inside ukraine
some group other than the government of Russia controls more than 20% of the land area of ukraine
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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