[Metaculus] Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?
25
180
490
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that there have been 400 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.


This market is managed by a bot. Once the original question resolves this market should automatically resolve the next time the bot is run. If the original resolved more than a day ago and this question is still open, ping @jskf. I might resolve this N/A if I find out it's a duplicate of an existing question within three days of market creation.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ283
2Ṁ133
3Ṁ71
4Ṁ59
5Ṁ45
Sort by:

Most recent reporting cites numbers that are significantly lower, e.g. https://apnews.com/article/israel-hezbollah-lebanon-hamas-gaza-war-b7bac0bb9890681b538ca95cd9d792b9