[Metaculus] Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?
Basic
8
Ṁ1272030
74%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will the UK have a Labour Prime Minister on January 1, 2030?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the UK Prime Minister on January 1, 2030 is a member of the Labour Party.
Otherwise, the question resolves negatively.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
Will the UK have a millennial Prime Minister before 2033?
30% chance
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2030?
43% chance
Who will be the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at some point in their life?
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2031?
37% chance
Will Keir Starmer be UK Prime Minister at the end of 2029?
38% chance
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
78% chance
How many different Prime Ministers will the UK have between April 1, 2024 and April 1, 2034?
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
50% chance
Will David Cameron be the UK's Foreign Secretary on January 1st 2025?
2% chance
[Metaculus] Will Dominic Cummings return to a position of direct power and influence in UK before 2050?
42% chance