Will the UK have a millennial Prime Minister before 2033?
28
1.2k
2032
30%
chance

Using the Wikipedia definition of someone born between 1981 and 1996.

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Am I missing something? Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak are both under 50. It's not common, but it's not that uncommon either.

@Duncn I suppose part of what I'm missing is that they do recycle prime ministers. I'm not sure that's a big risk moving forward...

predicts YES

@Duncn The median time in office is 3 years, so this gives us ~3 shots at having someone in the right part of their mid-to-late 40s in office. I've bid the market too high, but not, I think, by much?

predicts NO

@Duncn My counter-arguments would be:

1) The majority of Sunak’s cabinet, as well as any potential Conservative competitors, are all older than he is, so another non-election leadership change will not bring YES closer.

2) The far distant favourite at the next election is Keir Starmer, who is approaching 60.

3) Current polling is wildly in Starmer’s favour, so much so that it’s quite likely that he will keep the leadership much more comfortably, and very likely seek and win a second term. If he takes 2x five year terms then this market is a NO.

The most likely path to a YES is a Labour win in the next election, followed by Starmer stepping down for a younger candidate to take his place for $election +1.

predicts NO

@Noit In addition, of the current favourites for next Labour leader, only Wes Streeting and Jess Phillips (8% and 1.3% respectively) would be young enough to resolve YES. So the path is either of those, or another party with a young leader winning $election +1.

https://manifold.markets/MichaelBennett/who-will-be-the-next-leader-of-the?r=Tm9pdA