The International Criminal Court’s chief prosecutor is seeking an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu.
Will Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or tried for war crimes or crimes against humanity?
It will not be sufficient for this market if an arrest is made by someone without the power to enforce the arrest or detain him (eg. an activist accosts him and says that they’re making an arrest but his security staff get him away from the activist) or for him to be tried in absentia by a court who cannot enforce any ruling.
If Netanyahu dies without ever having been arrested, detained or tried for these crimes, the market will resolve to NO.
I don’t think that this resolution will be subjective, but just in case some edge case happens and it is subjective, I won’t be trading on this market.
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@AndreW50f5 You're right that this market may take a while to resolve, but Netanyahu is 74 years old and the market resolves to NO if he dies without being arrested so the market will have to resolve sooner than some of the other long term markets on this site!
Josef Shutz was convicted for Nazi war crimes at the age of 101, over 70 years after he committed his crimes. So I don't think there's any kind of cutoff where we can say that Netnyahu has retired and will never be prosecuted:
Metaculus is at 99% on the issue of the arrest warrant. I think they misread and did not take into account that proposal did not go through the court yet.
Edit: I confused questions, that statement is wrong.
@KongoLandwalker That doesn't make any sense unless they're using a very different definition to how I would understand that question!
The market here seems about right - /strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
Deleted. I must have misread question.
@KongoLandwalker 99% seems like more than just projecting hopes - that must be people who misunderstood the situation and thought that the chief prosecutor has the power to issue arrest warrants or something!
@SimonGrayson was my mistake. I was checking 2 different questions in the morning and confused their percentages. 99% for "ICC brings charges".