If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?
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Conditional on the ICC bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.
42%
Conditional on the ICC not bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

The condition of "bringing/not bringing charges" will be resolved according to the corresponding Metaculus question. Note that the announcement of either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient.

After that, the question with its condition not met will be resolved as N/A.

The remaining question will be resolved as YES if any current member (state party) of the ICC (at the time of market start) announces its withdrawal, or as NO on January 1, 2030. Note that they should announce it after market start, not necessarily after the condition is resolved.

#🇮🇱 Israel
#🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict
#Israeli Politics
#Bibi Netanyahu
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At first reading I thought "members" meant "Justices/officials of the Court". Like, one of them ragequits.

Then I realized you're probably thinking about states party denouncing the treaty and no longer being states party.

@BrunoParga I did not see this ambiguity. Thank you, I will clarify it in the description.

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