If the ICC brings charges against Netanyahu by 2026 (or doesn't), will any of its members announce withdrawal by 2030?

Ṁ1kṀ5k

resolved Jul 23

ALL

Resolved

N/A

Conditional on the ICC not bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

Resolved

YES

Conditional on the ICC bringing charges against Netanyahu before 2026-01-01, at least one current member will announce withdrawal from the ICC before 2030-01-01.

The condition of "bringing/not bringing charges" will be resolved according to the corresponding Metaculus question. Note that the announcement of either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient.

After that, the question with its condition not met will be resolved as N/A.

The remaining question will be resolved as YES if any current member (state party) of the ICC (at the time of market start) announces its withdrawal, or as NO on January 1, 2030. Note that they should announce it after market start, not necessarily after the condition is resolved.

Market context

Israel

Israeli Politics

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Bibi Netanyahu

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@mods creator inactive, conditions for a YES resolution abundantly met. Besides the linked below retraction of Hungary, also Mali, Burkina Faso etc. have recently withdrawn. The Underlying Metaculus market also resolved YES.