[Metaculus] Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?
[Metaculus] Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?
34
1kṀ8150Jul 1
93%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast region according to DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War (also here) at any point before June 30, 2025.
The question will resolve as No if the above criterion is not met by June 30, 2025.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?
36% chance
Will russian troops successfully remove the ukranian troops fron the Kursk region before August?
95% chance
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
27% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2025?
3% chance
Will Russia completely annex Ukraine by end of 2025?
2% chance
Will the Russia/Ukrainian war end before the end of 2025?
37% chance
Will Russia/Ukraine break their ceasefire before the end of 2025?
47% chance
[Metaculus] Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?
24% chance
Will Russia nuke Ukraine before the end of 2026?
3% chance
[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
92% chance