Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.
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Having closely followed spacex for a long time, I think they're not close to attempting this from an orbital launch - they've yet to get to test a controlled landing at sea. I imagine we might see ~5 launches during 2024, and only if they start working out succesfully all the way to controlled landing would risking stage-0 (the tower) start making sense.
A small hop into the tower could be viable, but afaik starship is not great at hovering and the landing/steering dynamics are sufficiently different that it doesn't make much sense to spend resources on.
[note: no direct research or reading others comments at the moment of writing]
Will they ultimately attempt this within 5 years? Heck yes 🚀🚀