[ACX 2024] Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
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Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.


Resolution criteria

This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.

Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.


Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

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bought Ṁ35 YES

@Mqrius added question

predicts NO

Of note is that spacex are working on a second tower, which I suspect will be finished in a few months. Once they have that working then damage to one of them from a failed catch is less catastrophic

Having closely followed spacex for a long time, I think they're not close to attempting this from an orbital launch - they've yet to get to test a controlled landing at sea. I imagine we might see ~5 launches during 2024, and only if they start working out succesfully all the way to controlled landing would risking stage-0 (the tower) start making sense.

A small hop into the tower could be viable, but afaik starship is not great at hovering and the landing/steering dynamics are sufficiently different that it doesn't make much sense to spend resources on.

[note: no direct research or reading others comments at the moment of writing]

Will they ultimately attempt this within 5 years? Heck yes 🚀🚀

bought Ṁ100 NO from 44% to 38%

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