On 19 March Gwynne Shotwell indicated 2024 goals for starship included
reach orbit, deploy satellites and recover both stages
per https://twitter.com/wapodavenport/status/1770086643329794101
"She adds that the goal for Starship this year is to reach orbit, deploy satellites and recover both stages. And of course to launch Falcon 9 148 times."
How many of these will be achieved?
Resolve % increases 25% for each of:
1. Reach orbit (As they have done most of a suborbital path, anything suborbital does not count, it must circle Earth at least once in a single flight.)
2. Deploy satellites (These have to circle Earth at least once, deploying from suborbital so they don't circle Earth won't count.)
3. Recover Booster (This can be via a catch with a launch tower, landing on legs either on land or on a barge and then brought back to land or soft water landing and then towing or other means of transport back to land. Being able to carefully inspect is what is aimed for here, so exploding within 2 hours of landing/catch is not sufficient, towing to a different location and then sinking it is not sufficient. Taking some parts for inspection and sinking rest does not meet my expectation for 'recover'. If they sell/transfer it to a scrap merchant who takes it back to land this is also insufficient.)
4. Recover second stage (same requirements as for booster)
The 25% increases are once only for each of these goals. Doing one of them 4 times and none of rest resolves at 25%.
1,000
3.00Recover booster done, so that is at least 25%
Reach orbit, deploy satellites and recover starship are currently being priced as 0 chance in 2024.
If they have to demonstrate lighting engines reliably in space to be allowed to do a deorbit burn, this would seem to make the other targets almost impossible if they have to do another suborbital launch before attempting these objectives. I am not sure if Musk was suggesting it was harder to light in atmosphere so he didn't expect actual problems or regulatory issues in getting approval for a deorbit burn.
Probably lots to learn from recovered booster, Will it take them long to apply lessons learnt?
Two more launches this year does seem unlikely.
@ChristopherRandles The incentives are a bit off, I think I don't really get all that much payout if I buy a little bit of Yes now. Not compared to if it were 4 separate markets.
@Mqrius Yes I would do it as a multichoice if doing it now. Sorry about that, this is probably pretty dead now for 2024. Perhaps monthly targets for any of remaining 3 that we don't already have markets for?
@ChristopherRandles Eh, I think we already have individual markets for orbit and for Starlink deploy. Not sure if any cases aren't covered.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
Thought people might want them all in one place.
@Mqrius good point, if it lands on legs or caught without blowing up that will be considered recovered.
I don't think you can closely examine while floating on water but if they lifted onto barge clearly did some detailed examination then shipped to a scrap merchant, should that count do you think?
@ChristopherRandles let's say they get it on land in one piece, that's easier to judge, no? Don't think they'll do so from a water landing anyway tbh.
@Mqrius Is one piece necessary? If it somehow tears itself in half on catch but doesn't explode I could see an argument for saying not an adequate recovery. On the other hand more likely would seem to be if it just tears off say a flap in catch then most of what they want to examine is available.
@ChristopherRandles I guess? To me it's mostly about resolvability of the market, and also the implicit goals of recovery. Gwynne would obviously want to recover it in one piece, because that's the path to reuse.
@Mqrius Sure reuse is the goal and 1 piece is better than two and 2 better than several or thousands. But from what was said, recovery is the goal for 2024, reuse will take longer. I am trying to see how likely they are to get along with these 2024 goals.