Told ya!

When will we likely know?

Bovada has this at 60/40

@FoxKHTML is this a Bovadeese nuts bait

See my related market about whether he will be in a cell: https://manifold.markets/Xelad102c/will-donald-trump-spend-more-than-a?r=WGVsYWQxMDJj

From a NYT/Siena Poll, 35% of swing state voters thought that the [Manhattan] trial was likely to end in a conviction (the survey was between April 28 to May 9) .

Why the gap to 70+% chance on manifold? Voters are uninformed or partisan? Or are they a wiser crowd than this market?

From a different You Gov poll (April 14 - May 7), an estimated 45% of Americans think he should be convicted, and 22% think he will. Even just among Democrats, only 34% thought he will be convicted. Big gap from this market.

(these are both for the Manhattan trial. So perhaps people think people are putting odds on other trials)

Jury nullification..

@StochasticParrot So you think he's guilty, but the jury will find the law against falsifying business records to be unjust?

@Snarflak I think he is expecting that at least one person on the jury is a Trump supporter who won't be impartial and will vote to acquit Trump no matter what. That's not exactly jury nullification in the traditional sense since it would result in a mistrial rather than an acquittal, but it would be jury nullification in the sense that the jury refuses to convict someone who is guilty beyond reasonable doubt because someone on the jury doesn't want to convict him despite his guilt.

@PlasmaBallin Yeah that would be a mistrial

Let's check in on Polymarket!

Those are some high numbers.

Metaculus at 50%, Polymarket at 79%. That's a big gap

@Simon74fe Well yes there's also that but I was hoping to convince people on the object level before pointing it out :b

@Joshua limit order

@Simon74fe I think Metaculus is lagging because of the tournament format; you're not scored on any updates to predictions after the prize cutoff date, so people aren't bothering so much

If I'm wrong about this you should all spam me with this meme. But I think it's happening.

Read this guide to the Manhattan election interference trial by Just Security. It goes through every aspect of the trial, which is going to start in two weeks and should be over by mid-June. Some quotes from the guide:

"As an evaluative matter, our assessment of the evidence is that there is a significant likelihood of conviction. We also assess that if Trump is convicted, a sentence of incarceration is not unlikely. We anticipate that should that come to pass, Trump will be released pending appeal, which will be a lengthy post-trial litigation process."

"Ultimately, barring any major surprises at trial, DANY will likely be able to convince a unanimous jury of the 34 charges. We explain below much more about why, including why Trump’s defenses will likely fail."

"Justice Merchan said he expects the trial to take around six weeks, with DANY estimating its case-in-chief to last 3-4 weeks. Trials often take longer than anticipated, and our assessment based on the evidence and analysis in this essay is that it could take up to eight weeks. That being said, trials are inherently unpredictable and the case could take shorter or longer than all have estimated."

Take my limit orders if you disagree!

I think this will happen

@Joshua Which case do you think it is most likely to happen in? I think it would certainly happen if all his trials happen before the election, but he seems to be succeeding in delaying them.

@PlasmaBallin The Manhattan hush money trial starts in two weeks!

https://www.vox.com/politics/24055503/trump-trials-fani-willis-jack-smith-alvin-bragg

They didn't even cite manifold!

@Joshua forced me to make this to prove I know absolutely nothing about Metaculus or the election:

Help make my new market more accurate by arbitraging it with this one

Take a look at the question like this in the ACX 2023 contest:

On Metaculus, it sat at 50-60 for months, then spiked based on news just before resolving yes.

Then look at Manifold:

At first glance, it seems like we did better. We stayed more like 60-70 for most of the market, then spiked based on news just before resolving yes.

But did Manifold do better as a whole? Look at the positions/profit in that market:

You see how spiky our graph was? It seems that was because an awful lot of people thought the price should have been lower! Really, it seems like just @BTE and @jack kept buying the market up while everyone else kept buying it down. Without those two users, I expect the manifold market would have settled into the same 50%-60% that Metaculus was at. I think that 50%-60% zone is basically everyone saying "I dunno, probably? I'm not a Lawyer."

I'm also not a Lawyer, but I know that if any random guy was up against all the charges Trump was up against, this market would probably be at like 90%+

@Joshua I got the highest profit on that market and the top score on the Metaculus question also. I think the main difference is that I had enough mana at the time and I and a sufficiently horrible trader that I just wouldn’t let it get any lower than 60 percent at any point. Had I not been trading I actually think it would have been metaculus that was higher because I think there was actually significantly more NO bets until the very end. There is a comment in that market from @NicoDelon to the effect that I was artificially inflating and he was probably right.

@BTE Hey it's not artificially inflating if you're right!

@Joshua At one point I think I was close to 180k mana position. Those spikes down in the months before resolving is me selling haha. I am so bad at trading!