Will Metaculus "Will Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 election?" go public trading higher than Manifold?
9
103
αΉ11KαΉ210
resolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This Metaculus market:
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Is currently open for predicting, with the value hidden from view.
At the instant that prediction value becomes public, will it be higher than the probability on:
/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
, the MirrorBot copy of the same market on Manifold?
If they both show the same number, rounded to an integer, then this resolves No. If Metaculus is lower, resolves No. If Metaculus is higher, resolves Yes.
Get αΉ200 play money
π Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | αΉ90 | |
2 | αΉ61 | |
3 | αΉ13 | |
4 | αΉ6 | |
5 | αΉ4 |
Related questions
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
70% chance
Will Donald Trump get convicted of a felony before he picks his VP
48% chance
Will Trump be convicted?
80% chance
[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
13% chance
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a crime before the 2024 election?
80% chance
Will Donald Trump be convicted of any felony crime by Election Day?
79% chance
Will Trump be convicted in federal court on any charge before the 2024 general election?
21% chance
[Metaculus] Donald Trump 2024 republican nominee -> Donald Trump on the ballot in Colorado on election day
98% chance
Will Trump be convicted of a Felony before the presidential election, and will he win the election?
Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
47% chance