Will Metaculus "Will Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 election?" go public trading higher than Manifold?
Basic
9
Ṁ11kresolved Feb 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
This Metaculus market:
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Is currently open for predicting, with the value hidden from view.
At the instant that prediction value becomes public, will it be higher than the probability on:
/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
, the MirrorBot copy of the same market on Manifold?
If they both show the same number, rounded to an integer, then this resolves No. If Metaculus is lower, resolves No. If Metaculus is higher, resolves Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Related questions
Related questions
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
56% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
51% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
45% chance
Will there be an insider betting/ trading scandal on Manifold before the end of 2024?
30% chance
Will a Manifold user show up in the same picture as Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
42% chance
If Trump is elected president, will Manifold think he made a serious attempt to remain in charge after 4 years are up?
39% chance
If Trump wins, will Manifold users vote that his performance has been better than they expected by the midterms?
38% chance
Will Donald Trump post a screenshot/link of a Manifold politics market in 2024?
3% chance
How accurately will Manifold predict the 2024 Presidential Election?
Will Mr. Donald Trump join Manifold Markets before the end of 2025?
2% chance