Will Metaculus "Will Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 election?" go public trading higher than Manifold?
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Ṁ11kresolved Feb 1
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This Metaculus market:
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Is currently open for predicting, with the value hidden from view.
At the instant that prediction value becomes public, will it be higher than the probability on:
/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-donald-trump-be-convi
, the MirrorBot copy of the same market on Manifold?
If they both show the same number, rounded to an integer, then this resolves No. If Metaculus is lower, resolves No. If Metaculus is higher, resolves Yes.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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