Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2025?
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Will it be possible to buy Cannabis for recreational use in Germany for people over 18 years on December 31st 2025?

Mar 14, 9:22am: Will cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2025? → Will Cannabis be legal in Germany by the end of 2025?

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Because this also is in discussion currently: If there is an easy way (I will decide what counts as easy) to legally grow and consume Cannabis either by yourself or in Cannabis Social Clubs then I will resolve this to YES. If the consumption or the growing is only decriminalized then I will resolve it to NO. Basically there needs to be an easy way for any German citizen 18 years or older to recreationally consume Cannabis without breaking the law.

@HolgerBahren Betting a little NO because I heard is not "easy" to join a club.

There has been discussion recently in Germany about legalizing Cannabis in model regions instead of the whole country. Unfortunately this is something I did not think about when I created the market. My current thinking on resolving the market would be the following: If it is possible for any German citizen 18 years or older to go to such a model region and buy Cannabis, I would resolve the market to YES. If only citizens who live in the model region can buy it there, then I would resolve the market to NO.

predicts NO

@HolgerBahren But model regions, in any manner, would not mean that cannabis was legal in Germany. It would mean Cannabis is only legal in those model regions. I would say the market should resolve to yes, if citizens from outside the model region may not just buy, but also legally take the cannabis anywhere in Germany.

@Rwin I think you can argue this in both directions. WXTJ assumed the market resolves to YES if it is possible anywhere in Germany, you argue that it has to be legal in all of Germany for it to resolve to YES. I am aware there is no resolution that agrees with both interpretations and unfortunately I didn't take this into account when creating the market. For me it would be enough that any German citizen can buy it somewhere in Germany and that is how I am gonna resolve it (barring any other possible wrinkles in the actual law that I did not forsee). But I am absolutely aware that this is not ideal. Let's hope this will be not the deciding factor for the resolution of the market.

I'm betting 'yes' on the assumption that it being possible anywhere in Germany (not requiring all regions to allow it) would resolve this 'yes'. Could you please confirm if this is how you would interpret that as well? Thank you.

My current thinking on resolving the market would be the following: If it is possible for any German citizen 18 years or older to go to such a model region and buy Cannabis, I would resolve the market to YES. If only citizens who live in the model region can buy it there, then I would resolve the market to NO.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/cannabis-legalisierung-modellregionen-101.html Apperantly they are planning to first do model projects at a few locations for four years.

"Offenbar will Lauterbach die Legalisierung aber zunächst nur in Modellregionen umsetzen. Das geht nach Informationen von "Zeit Online" aus den aktualisierten Eckpunkten hervor, über die der Minister mit den Fraktionsspitzen der Ampelparteien beraten wolle. Modellregionen könnten demnach ausgewählte Metropolregionen sein, aber auch im ländlichen Raum liegen. Den Plänen zufolge werden dort die Auswirkungen des legalen Verkaufs unter verschiedenen Bedingungen geprüft und anschließend ausgewertet. Die Modellprojekte sollen dem Bericht zufolge wissenschaftlich begleitet und zunächst auf vier Jahre befristet sein.  "

predicts NO

@Rwin *apparently