@mods

Disclaimer: I don't hold a position in this market.

Conflict of interest: I try to change the norms towards more N/A resolutions.

Market creator account deleted. Ambiguous resolution criteria.

The legal situation is not about to change, people have been trading on the creator's interpretation.

Cannabis is "legal" in Germany, as in "still illegal, but exceptions exist where it is legal to possess or grow certain amounts", but it is not legal to buy Cannabis. It is legal to pay for a membership in a Cannabis club and get Cannabis there. It is probably (?) relatively (?) easy to become a club member, but depending on your place of residence, there are no clubs, because it can be almost prohibitively difficult to open a club.

Resolves Yes according to the title.

Resolves No according to the wording of the description.

Resolves Yes according to the intended meaning of the description.

Resolves No according to some of creator's comments.

Resolves Yes according to some of creator's comments.

No clarifications from the comments got added to the description. The description is what is commonly regarded as resolution criterion, which is (and with very high probability will stay) a clear No. I was thinking about trading this down to 50% when it became obvious that Bavaria would set very high hurdles against forming a club (still 0 clubs approved in Bavaria). Now I would bet this down much further, as club members need to "actively participate in the cultivation" (FAQ 41 at www.bundesgesundheitsministerium.de/themen/cannabis/faq-cannabisgesetz#collapse-control-7595) , which is pretty far from even the most Yes-leaning comments by the creator.

So my options are:

1. Bet No and argue that the formal market criteria, as well as any legally informed reading of the informal clarification attempts, will resolve this No.

2. Argue for N/A.

I choose option 2 and would like to invite @dreev and presumably other mods who try hard to prevent N/A resolutions to weigh in.

Please note that I did some minimal research which took me very close to the facts of the matter, and which I should be able to profit from. BUT I CAN'T, because:

If ambiguous markets resolve N/A, I can bet on my knowledge and markets serve as information aggregators and mirror traders' beliefs. But as such markets could resolve either way and traders' calls for N/A are regarded as some sort of malicious attempts to prevent an unfavorable resolution, there's not much to gain and much (invested time, arguments, Mana ...) to lose.

@Primer I think in this situation it would be best if someone else could be the new 'owner' of the market and then that person would need to synthesize all the existing comments of the creator and decide whether the market can continue as-is or if it needs to be resolved N/A due to conflicting clarifications.

It might be hard to find someone who:

• Does not already have a position

• Cares enough about this to see it through to the end of 2025 (or resolve Yes sooner if appropriate)

• Understands the site norms enough to bring the market back on track without causing a major disruption

I don't really have any suggestions about how to proceed. I don't want to run this market. I can let it sit in the mod queue 'forever'. Participants who want to see a resolution could actively seek out someone to be the new market owner.

Because this also is in discussion currently: If there is an easy way (I will decide what counts as easy) to legally grow and consume Cannabis either by yourself or in Cannabis Social Clubs then I will resolve this to YES. If the consumption or the growing is only decriminalized then I will resolve it to NO. Basically there needs to be an easy way for any German citizen 18 years or older to recreationally consume Cannabis without breaking the law.

@HolgerBahren Betting a little NO because I heard is not "easy" to join a club.

There has been discussion recently in Germany about legalizing Cannabis in model regions instead of the whole country. Unfortunately this is something I did not think about when I created the market. My current thinking on resolving the market would be the following: If it is possible for any German citizen 18 years or older to go to such a model region and buy Cannabis, I would resolve the market to YES. If only citizens who live in the model region can buy it there, then I would resolve the market to NO.

@HolgerBahren But model regions, in any manner, would not mean that cannabis was legal in Germany. It would mean Cannabis is only legal in those model regions. I would say the market should resolve to yes, if citizens from outside the model region may not just buy, but also legally take the cannabis anywhere in Germany.

@Rwin I think you can argue this in both directions. WXTJ assumed the market resolves to YES if it is possible anywhere in Germany, you argue that it has to be legal in all of Germany for it to resolve to YES. I am aware there is no resolution that agrees with both interpretations and unfortunately I didn't take this into account when creating the market. For me it would be enough that any German citizen can buy it somewhere in Germany and that is how I am gonna resolve it (barring any other possible wrinkles in the actual law that I did not forsee). But I am absolutely aware that this is not ideal. Let's hope this will be not the deciding factor for the resolution of the market.

I'm betting 'yes' on the assumption that it being possible anywhere in Germany (not requiring all regions to allow it) would resolve this 'yes'. Could you please confirm if this is how you would interpret that as well? Thank you.

My current thinking on resolving the market would be the following: If it is possible for any German citizen 18 years or older to go to such a model region and buy Cannabis, I would resolve the market to YES. If only citizens who live in the model region can buy it there, then I would resolve the market to NO.

https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/innenpolitik/cannabis-legalisierung-modellregionen-101.html Apperantly they are planning to first do model projects at a few locations for four years.

"Offenbar will Lauterbach die Legalisierung aber zunächst nur in Modellregionen umsetzen. Das geht nach Informationen von "Zeit Online" aus den aktualisierten Eckpunkten hervor, über die der Minister mit den Fraktionsspitzen der Ampelparteien beraten wolle. Modellregionen könnten demnach ausgewählte Metropolregionen sein, aber auch im ländlichen Raum liegen. Den Plänen zufolge werden dort die Auswirkungen des legalen Verkaufs unter verschiedenen Bedingungen geprüft und anschließend ausgewertet. Die Modellprojekte sollen dem Bericht zufolge wissenschaftlich begleitet und zunächst auf vier Jahre befristet sein.  "

@Rwin *apparently