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Even better return

https://manifold.markets/Calvin6b82/will-x-country-recognize-palestine

You can get a better return buying no here:

https://manifold.markets/suzumebatchi/which-states-will-rule-that-frozen

Only 3 things are infinite: the universe, human stupidity, and Bibi's reign.

@BaryLevy I'm not sure about the first two.

some rumblings that the haredi parties are not happy that they aren't getting any of their priorities
they're the real x-factors to watch

Collapsing the government will just likely lead to a secular coalition though. Even in the absolute best case it would just lead to the same government with the same problems.

or result in new elections and since they're the fastest growing pop they can expect to pick up a seat or two
it's true that there is no coalition other than the current one that includes the haredim, but what use is being part of a coalition that doesn't advance any of your policies

recent polls show
55-60: non bibi parties (B&W, Lapid, Liberman)
50-55: current coalition (with a stronger ben gvir, haredim, but weeker BIBI)
5-10: Arab Parties
the haredim can quite feasibly play kingmaker (possibly abstain and allow a non-bibi minority govt in exchange for some important thing)

Perhaps Lieberman would rather form a coalition with Ra'am than with Haredi parties.

If there is a liberal-right party run by Bennett or someone like that, it will take votes from Likud.

Yeah, I think Ra'am is pretty decisively on the side of NUP/YB which gives them a very clear path to 61.

Yeah, and if Bennett re-enters, Gallant breaks from Likud, or something like that, Likud will take some more hits. The polls also all have New Hope and Meretz below the threshold. Likely New Hope would merge or drop out, and Meretz will merge with Labor. So I think they are overstating Bibi's case.

Putting it all on 'yes' here as an emotional hedge

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/18/israels-gantz-demands-gaza-post-war-plan-threathens-to-quit-govt

Israel’s war cabinet member Benny Gantz has threatened to quit the government of Benjamin Netanyahu should the prime minister fail to present a post-war plan for Gaza by June 8.

Tensions with Iran are quite bullish for this market IMO

@SemioticRivalry Those tensions were short-lived though. The real question is whether there is an opportunity for an election in time to replace him. He will lose to Gantz in the next election. But the election certainly won't be held until after Rafah. On that note it quite likely won't be held until the Israelis in the North return to their homes and Hezbollah is deterred.

@nathanwei Bibi is a master of stalling

@Shump I put up some limit orders if you are interested - happy to increase them too after a little googling if you take some of these.

I'm betting on the basis that every time I have thought "this has to be the end of Bibi", it hasn't been.

@RobertCousineau Thanks, I think I had enough. My credence isn't actually much lower than the market.

Netanyahu is a wizard, but I do think he is running out of tricks. I was just betting on the fact that this market hasn't updated over the developments from last month. Things are shaky on mutiple fronts.

@SemioticRivalry you are a good predictor. What do you know that I don’t know here?

@JimAusman I don't have any access to non public information, just my read of the political situation is that there are a lot of parties incentivized to avoid elections anytime soon

@JimAusman it would probably take a 65/120 vote majority to actually remove him for procedural reasons. His original coalition had 64, and the unity government has more. Even if Ganz wants to remove him (which he might, but has not openly endorsed) he's still ten votes short and all of the 64 potential votes have strong reason not to go for it since they'd probably lose power in a new government.

If he survives 2024, when will he leave office?

/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep

Metaculus has this at 44 percent.