Who will win the 2024 Mexican Presidential Election? [ACX 2024]
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ACX 2024 2024 US Presidential ElectionMetaculusElections: WorldMexicoMexican politicsACX 2024 Prediction Contest
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174
Ṁ234k
resolved Jun 3
100%99.6%
Claudia Sheinbaum
0.4%
Xóchitl Gálvez
0.0%
Movimento Ciudadano's Candidate
0.0%Other

Mirror for this question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20692/2024-mexican-president/

Note that management of this question is currently not automated. Please ping @jskf if this should be updated or resolved, or to encourage him to work on multiple choice support for mirrorbot.

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@jskf Metaculus has resolved

bought Ṁ250 Xóchitl Gálvez NO

news starting to call it, official results after midnight, can resolve soon

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-06-02/mexico-presidential-election

Not a prize market but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

reposted

Other odds for comparison:

Metaculus:

Polymarket:

Good Judgement Open:

@Joshua Weird… I’d probably give her like 98% chance of winning

Consistently about 20% up in the polls, massively popular, no scandals… what’s gonna happen in 2 weeks?!

bought Ṁ1 Claudia Sheinbaum NO

@benshindel 2 weeks, 2 leaks, too weak (rhymes so it's gotta be true)

Xóchitl Gálvez

Why was this market so much lower than than Metaculus?

@Fedor name starts with X, clearly they're in Musk's pocket /s

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