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Here’s a nice exploration of how the election results may or may not be predicted by opinion polls.

Here’s a good explanation of the various scenarios that might cause the election to go another way than what people expect.

This question is asking "who will be the first woman to have the title of President even though other titles are functionally equivalent to either of a President's possible roles of Head of State and Head of Government, in an arbitrarily narrow definition of North America that is not the one usually used in the language the question is written in?"

The more such stipulations you have to add, the more underwhelming the "achievement". Here's the actual list of women who have been Heads of Government and Heads of State in North America:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_elected_and_appointed_female_heads_of_state_and_government

• 1 - Eugenia Charles, Prime Minister of Dominica 1980-1995

• 2 - Ertha Pascal-Trouillot, President of Haiti 1990-1991

• 3 - Violeta Chamorro, President of Nicaragua 1990-1997

• 4 - Kim Campbell, Prime Minister of Canada 1993

• 5 - Claudette Weirleigh, Prime Minister of Haiti 1996-1997

• 6 - Mireya Moscoso, President of Panama 1999-2004

• 7 - Portia Simpson-Miller, Prime Minister of Jamaica 2006-2007 and 2012-2016

• 8 - Michèle Pierre-Louis, Prime Minister of Haiti 2008-2009

• 9 - Laura Chinchilla, President of Costa Rica 2010-2014

• 10 - Kamla Persad-Bissessar, Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago 2010-2015

• 11 - Paula-Mae Weekes, President of Trinidad and Tobago 2018-2023

• 12 - Mia Mottley, Prime Minister of Barbados since 2018

• 13 - Sandra Mason, President of Barbados since 2021 (the country has never had a male Head of State since independence in 1966)

• 14 - Xiomara Castro, President of Honduras since 2022

• 15 - Christine Kangaloo, Ms Weekes' successor as President of Trinidad and Tobago, in office

• 16 - Sylvanie Burton, President of Dominica since 2023

So, out of the 23 countries with most or all their territory in North America (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states_and_dependent_territories_in_North_America), Mexico will be only the 11th to have a female Head of State or Government; a few have had women in both roles at the same time, or women succeeding women. A further 7 countries not mentioned above are Commonwealth realms that have had female Governors-General.

Sure, it is cool that Mexico is going to have its first female President in the figure of either Ms. Sheinbaum or Ms. Gálvez. But trying to claim it'll be the first in North America requires narrowing down the claim so much that it stop being a flex and becomes pitiful.

@BrunoParga Sigh.

@BrunoParga I will change it to Mexico, though 🇲🇽 makes it obvious what is intended, my dear wisenheimer.

@BlueDragon you could always say "countries named United States".

@BrunoParga Wow buddy! Where are you located at, maybe we can get you looked at seeing maybe if you are ok right now?

@BrunoParga I think you mean “countries not named United States”?

Thanks for your continued ontological interest in this market you aren’t betting on, and thanks for making a suggestion! Otherwise I might have taken you for a troll.

FWIW President and Prime Minister have distinct electoral mechanisms generally. While you are right that the definition of North America is not universally agreed upon, you are not correct that “narrowing down the claim” to exclude Central America and the Caribbean is pitiful.

I already regret humoring you. Let’s move on.

@BlueDragon “Estados Unidos Mexicanos”, or the United States of Mexico, is the official name of the country

So “countries named United States” means USA or Mexico

@benshindel Cool, I stand corrected

@benshindel The rest of my comment stands obviously, not looking for nitpicking around semantics that will clarify nothing at all.

@Mirek

A lot of hope pinned on the next president of Mexico ❤️ ✊

AP article

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-mexican-election-poll-sheinbaum-lead-widens-time-runs-out-galvez/