This market will close on June 30th 2026! It will be resolved in due time according to the rules below!
(Markets 1-16 are Category 1 Markets.)
A Category 1 Market resolves NO if their event happens when all other Markets are unresolved and resolves YES if they happen when one other Market is resolved NO.
Market 17 will resolve NO on the 31.dec 2026 except if one other Market is resolved NO, then Market 17 resolves to YES on the 31.dec 2026.
Market 18 will resolve YES on the 31.dec 2026 except if Market 17 resolves to YES, then Market 18 resolves to NO on the 31.dec 2026.
ALL MARKETS INSTANTLY RESOLVE NO, AS SOON AS ANY MARKET RESOLVES YES.
Markets:
A formal peace treaty is signed by Ukraine and Russia.
The EU AI Act fully enters into force (key provisions enforced, not just passed).
A peer-reviewed paper claims strong biosignatures on another planet or moon and is widely accepted (e.g., cited by NASA/ESA) as credible.
The executives/government coalitions in at least 3 top-10 GDP countries holds less than 50% of their national parliament at the same time.
A new element is officially added to the periodic table.
A human lands on the Moon in a crewed mission.
A major social media platform completely bans the use of anonymous accounts.
A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency.
A new country is officially recognized by the United Nations.
The Leader of a top-10 GDP country dies.
BRICS members, partners, candidates are involved on opposite sites of wars or military campaigns or military strikes or military actions on at least two separate occasions.
A human-to-human virus is declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the WHO.
A country admits to the Nord Stream sabotage.
At least one of the following three countries is part of a war or military campaign or military strike or military action on either side. (North Korea, Turkmenistan, Eritrea)
Rockstar Games officially releases Grand Theft Auto VI.
A new European political party will start being represented in the European Parliament, OR an old European political party will stop being represented in the European Parliament.
Only one of these will happen in 2026.
None of these will happen in 2026.
1,000People are also trading
https://www.who.int/news/item/17-05-2026-epidemic-of-ebola-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo-and-uganda-determined-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern
Epidemic of Ebola Disease caused by Bundibugyo virus in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda determined a public health emergency of international concern
@minion7777777777 @AlanTennant
For "A country formally declares the climate crisis a national security emergency."
Would something like this count?
https://globalclimaterisks.org/insights/blog/iceland-amoc-national-security-threat/
Iceland has classified the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as a national security and existential risk, marking the first time a climate-driven threat has been formally elevated to Iceland’s National Security Council. The decision enables coordinated planning for worst‑case scenarios as scientists warn that AMOC could weaken or collapse within the next two decades.
That is November 28, 2025 so not in 2026 and therefore presumably does not count.
@AlanTennant There is an option in the top right what to sort them by. You control the sorting, not the creator of the market.
3 of to 10 GDP countries, minorities but still government discussion area: