I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse. Update 2026-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A princess drawn with a dress (rather than stick figure lines) counts as a non-stick-figure comic for this answer. Update 2026-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A princess drawn with a dress counts as a stick figure (not as a non-stick-figure comic).

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, earthquake 7.0+ magnitude, followed by trump leaves usa at least once and at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it are most likely. See the market for live updates (40 traders, as of Jul 19, 2026).

🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

MANIFOLD

🌭What will happen in July 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Ṁ775Ṁ5.6k

Jul 31

99%

earthquake 7.0+ magnitude

99%

trump leaves usa at least once

99%

at least 3 xkcd comics with no stick figures in it

99%

nyc receives 3 or more inches of rain

99%

american airstrike or drone strike or missle strike on iran

99%

Member of U.S Congress resigns, dies, or is removed from office

98.8%

Sam Altman still CEO through end of month

98%

noam chomsky alive until end of month

95%

starship launch

88%

Anthropic or Meta release a new model

72%

linked market achieves over 20 unique traders (see comments)

66%

$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month

33%

Trump issues a pardon or commutation

27%

major tech company merger/acquisition announced

21%

Gold above $ 4,273 (see comment)

20%

spacex launches 15 or more rockets

19%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates

10%

earthquake 7.5 magnitude or higher

10%

An original, Nintendo approved game with "Mario" in its title is announced

An incumbent U.S. State governor dies in office

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

Update 2026-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A princess drawn with a dress (rather than stick figure lines) counts as a non-stick-figure comic for this answer.

Update 2026-07-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A princess drawn with a dress counts as a stick figure (not as a non-stick-figure comic).

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@strutheo 3.45 per https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CF6&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0

bought Ṁ180 YES

@strutheo 7.3 17th July per https://www.iris.edu/app/seismic-monitor/table

@strutheo https://xkcd.com/3266/

https://xkcd.com/3268/

https://xkcd.com/3273/

@Chimpey /Chimpey/my-ranking-in-silver-this-month-my

@strutheo Trump threatens more strikes on Iran as Tehran warns of 'fearless' response
US Central Command (Centcom) said on Tuesday it had launched "powerful" strikes in response to attacks on three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state media said eight members of the country's army had been killed in US strikes in Bandar Abbas and Bushehr, southern Iran.