Mini
4
92
2042
44%
AGI achieved as determined by USA unemployment exceeding 20%
38%
A 1MW Fusion power plant connected to any electric grid
12%
A room-temperature superconductor is discovered
6%
Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist

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Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist

@chris presumably this refers to humanity finding strong evidence of non-terrestrial life? because most people already expect non-terrestrial life to exist in the universe, it being so big and all that.

@Bayesian That's correct, we would both have to have credible evidence, and that evidence is widely believed in the scientific community that this confirms alien life.

Note: I'll be using the date the evidence was revealed to the world, not the date of discovery for the purposes of this market. If someone in a black ops somewhere knows there is aliens, but we don't, I don't count that, even retroactively.