Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?
34
1kṀ96042030
74%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Ending this market in 2030, as the latest IRB report estimates this as the launch date.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
If the mission is NASA-led and has a primary purpose of retrieving samples, it is considered MSR.
Missions where the primary purpose is not sample return (e.g., humans landing on Mars) do not count as MSR.
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
If NASA contacts a commercial company to complete Mars Sample Return, the mission is not cancelled.
If NASA determines they do not want to move forward with MSR at this time and decides to table it for an indefinite amount of time, the mission is considered “cancelled” as there is no plan to move forward.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will NASA's SLS be cancelled before 2026?
15% chance
Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China?
35% chance
Will the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?
88% chance
Will SLS be cancelled before 2026?
11% chance
When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?
2033
Will SpaceX get funding from Trump’s NASA for a Mars mission?
72% chance
Will Starship be involved with the return of the Mars samples?
50% chance
Will Starship land on Mars to return the MSR samples?
33% chance
Before when will SLS be cancelled?
Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
50% chance