MANIFOLD
By 2026, will a "nonsocial media app" exclusively serving AI-generated shortform content reach one million DAU?
11
Ṁ170Ṁ315
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
NO

Imagine an app that works similarly to TikTok, but each video is fully AI-generated (including any text, visuals, or audio) and personalized for each user. Users don't post comments which other users see, but perhaps they provide feedback on each video via ratings, likes, or natural language, or with a device that monitors brain activity.

In current media apps, AI systems curate user-generated content to create maximally addicting series of inputs. On this platform, the AI system would cut out the meaty middleman by generating the content directly.

Figure 1: Early prototype

Figure 2: Happy customer

Feel free to ask questions if the resolution criteria needs to be clarified.

  • Update 2026-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that apps like Sora do NOT qualify for this market because:

    • Users still generate the content (not the company)

    • Multiple users watch the same piece of content (not 100% individualized)

    • Users can still comment

To qualify, an app must have:

  • Content generated by the company/AI system itself (not user-generated)

  • 100% individualized content (each user sees unique content)

  • No public commenting system between users

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It looks like Sora reached 1M daily active users but now has fewer. Does that mean "yes"?

@ImaPerson Ah, I wish I had specified the resolution criteria better. I think the trajectory was almost directionally correct, but even though Sora is exclusively AI-generated shortform content, it’s technically still social. Users still generate the content (not the company), multiple users watch the same piece of content (not 100% individualized), and users still comment. So I think it still counts as a “no”.

@RomanHauksson thanks; makes sense

OpenAI launches Sora: a social app for AI-generated videos
https://openai.com/index/sora-is-here/

From the latest YC call for startups:

> Imagine being able to create a brand new season of your favorite canceled TV series. Or a personalized kids cartoon starring your own family as the characters. Or an AI-native successor to TikTok, where every video is made for exactly one viewer.

https://www.ycombinator.com/rfs

It won't even reach one user. No ai company will ever go public.

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