I’ve done this type of market twice before, and my mom won the last one of these, and went 50-50 on the first one. She knew who Sam Altman was, does she know who Nate Silver is?
My parents’ anniversary is September 2nd, and I’ll be calling them for that, and playing this game with my mom a third time. I’ll ask her one simple question, “Mom, who is Nate Silver?”. If she can name any of: “538”, “Silver Bulletin”, “Poker Player”, or any other specific job listed on his Wikipedia page, this’ll be a YES. If she says, “I have no idea”, easy NO. Any other factoid she may give will give partial credit (I won’t be betting here as this is subjective). If she says “the election numbers guy”, this is probably going to be very close to a YES, if not a full YES.
Some facts that may influence your betting:
My mom turns 70 next year, and has been a classical musician for her whole professional life.
She watches ABC local [Philly] and national news every morning and evening (and apparently Nate Silver worked for ABC News - not sure how often he was on the local Philly news, or the 6:30 national tv broadcasts).
She doesn’t know anything about professional poker.
Previous markets, where my mom IMMEDIATELY got “Travis Kelce’s team” for the Chiefs, and knew Sam A
1,000
3.00I obtained my mom’s permission to record the conversation (as you’ll see), and while I’m not going to share it here, if anyone is doubtful, I’ll share it with Mods to verify its validity. However, Apple recordings give an auto-transcript and I’ll share that as proof!
My mom guessed 538 in ~10seconds, and for the NO holders, even my Dad (sat in the other room) was shocked when she got it right.
My transcription of the conversation:
[me] I've begun recording everything that I say and everything that you say is going to appear in the recording. Is that okay?
[mom] Agreed.
[me] Okay. I have not given you any hints. I have not instructed you about what question I'm going to ask you, is that all correct?
[mom] That is correct.
[me] Okay. You are not allowed to use the Internet. You are not allowed to get help from dad. This has to be entirely answered of your own volition. Is that okay?
[mom] I agree.
[me] Okay. Mom, one simple question. Who is Nate silver?
[mom] pause. Nate Silver. pause Isn’t he the guy that’s the head of pause um 538?
[me] And she does it, wow! mom, you are two and a half in a row. congratulations. ok, so, technically, you’re not correct
[mom] Hahaha, Dad is shocked that I knew it.
[me] I will say, the internet has never given you >50% odds in the very end, but you’ve gotten two correct, and one half correct, so your EV is somewhere in the like 80% range.
[mom] Oh wait, which one was half correct? Because I didn’t know ChatGPT?
[me] No, you got that one perfectly correct. You didn’t know the KC Chiefs
[mom] Oh right, right, right. I knew it was a midwest team, though. Ok, thanks for the half credit on that one.
[me] This grows every time that we do it. The first time we did this like hundred people bet, last time like 250 people bet, this time it’s like 350.
[mom] Did you bet that I was going to get it right or wrong?
[me] I can’t bet, Mom. Because people think that I'm cheating. People think that one way or another, I'm like helping you.
[mom] Well, I do you know sort of things I do read my time magazine and I get news from a bunch of sources. So I'm not a complete idiot. laughs
[me] Ok, this is all in the recording, for what it’s worth.
[mom] Oh, ok, that’s fine.
[me] Perfect. Congratulations, Mom. The internet loves you
[mom] Thank you.
[me] Any last statements? Do you want to take a victory lap? Anything to say?
[mom] I'm thrilled that I actually knew the answer but that was something I did know. I had to think a minute about him, but then I thought that's what he was.
[me] For what it's worth, he did leave 538, but yes, I said if you can guess 538, or the Silver Bulletin, or anything else like that, you would have it correct. You definitely know who he is.
[mom] And I even know what the number 538 represents!
[me] Wow, all right! Look at you! Okay, I'm about to end the recording. This ends the recording.
I obtained my mom’s permission to record the conversation (as you’ll see), and while I’m not going to share it here, if anyone is doubtful, I’ll share it with Mods to verify its validity. However, Apple recordings give an auto-transcript and I’ll share that as proof!
My mom guessed 538 in ~10seconds, and for the NO holders, even my Dad (sat in the other room) was shocked when she got it right.
My transcription of the conversation:
[me] I've begun recording everything that I say and everything that you say is going to appear in the recording. Is that okay?
[mom] Agreed.
[me] Okay. I have not given you any hints. I have not instructed you about what question I'm going to ask you, is that all correct?
[mom] That is correct.
[me] Okay. You are not allowed to use the Internet. You are not allowed to get help from dad. This has to be entirely answered of your own volition. Is that okay?
[mom] I agree.
[me] Okay. Mom, one simple question. Who is Nate silver?
[mom] pause. Nate Silver. pause Isn’t he the guy that’s the head of pause um 538?
[me] And she does it, wow! mom, you are two and a half in a row. congratulations. ok, so, technically, you’re not correct
[mom] Hahaha, Dad is shocked that I knew it.
[me] I will say, the internet has never given you >50% odds in the very end, but you’ve gotten two correct, and one half correct, so your EV is somewhere in the like 80% range.
[mom] Oh wait, which one was half correct? Because I didn’t know ChatGPT?
[me] No, you got that one perfectly correct. You didn’t know the KC Chiefs
[mom] Oh right, right, right. I knew it was a midwest team, though. Ok, thanks for the half credit on that one.
[me] This grows every time that we do it. The first time we did this like hundred people bet, last time like 250 people bet, this time it’s like 350.
[mom] Did you bet that I was going to get it right or wrong?
[me] I can’t bet, Mom. Because people think that I'm cheating. People think that one way or another, I'm like helping you.
[mom] Well, I do you know sort of things I do read my time magazine and I get news from a bunch of sources. So I'm not a complete idiot. laughs
[me] Ok, this is all in the recording, for what it’s worth.
[mom] Oh, ok, that’s fine.
[me] Perfect. Congratulations, Mom. The internet loves you
[mom] Thank you.
[me] Any last statements? Do you want to take a victory lap? Anything to say?
[mom] I'm thrilled that I actually knew the answer but that was something I did know. I had to think a minute about him, but then I thought that's what he was.
[me] For what it's worth, he did leave 538, but yes, I said if you can guess 538, or the Silver Bulletin, or anything else like that, you would have it correct. You definitely know who he is.
[mom] And I even know what the number 538 represents!
[me] Wow, all right! Look at you! Okay, I'm about to end the recording. This ends the recording.
[x] Doubt
Please share with the @MichaelWheatley - @DistinctlySkeptical & @Gabrielle - only mods I am trusting here on this site to tell some truth.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Lol, he said his mom reads Newsweek, if you search "Newsweek Nate Silver" there's like an article every second day.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist Manifold is so much less fun with people like you.
@Gabrielle’s got the recording. Michael or Crypto, happy to share with y’all as well.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist I didn't have any reason to doubt Matt, especially since he didn't even have a position in the market, but since you asked (despite also not having a position in the market...), I got the recording from @mattyb.
I can verify that the transcript matched up with the recording. It didn't sound like his mom was lying or acting, and I think that the resolution was correct.
@CryptoNeoLiberalist I don’t know what is surprising about this, mainstream outlets have talked about 538 every election cycle since 2016 and it was said that she watches ABC. They literally have a whole section on their website dedicated to it https://abcnews.go.com/538
@mattyb If it is ranked, I am not messing around with it, we are needing proof and verification! Still waiting for it btw @Shelvacu !!! Maybe you are a mana boy, but I am the spice alpha man. I have burning my toes with by the personal market too many times for me to be so naive about it! Thank you for the verification by the trustworthy mods. I look forward to your posts on r/GoneMana now and all is well in the universe. You are the true gentleman and scholar. I like your mom as well a little for dealing with this. Good day.
@mattyb I don’t bet in these kinds of markets, but this was the most obvious outcome ever after you revealed her political opinions. Now ask to see her Twitter. I guarantee that either a) her profile picture is a dog b) she has a blue wave or blue heart in her name or bio c) she has complained about mid-day news programming in the past 30 days d) she has retweeted an obvious AI or otherwise shopped photo of Trump in the past 30 days
@FoxKHTML she doesn’t use Twitter, but she does “do email”. She’s also on Facebook, I think, though she doesn’t use it much.
