Will Nate Silver be involved in a major scandal in 2024?
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Ṁ1702025
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Something along the lines of "Nate Silver tweeted bad things about Biden to move a market", or "Nate Silver intentionally manipulated his model to cause large swings", or "Nate Silver paid by the RNC to make critical tweets". In short, the scandal must be big enough that nearly everyone discredits him.
Something like "Nate Silver bets on the outcome on his model" will not count
Must be public before close date. I will not bet in this market (except for base rate setting)
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