Resolution Criteria
This market resolves to YES if China launches a military invasion of Taiwan within 1 year (365 days) following an invasion of Greenland by the USA. The market resolves to NO if China does not invade Taiwan within this timeframe after a Greenland invasion, including the case where a Taiwan invasion precedes a Greenland invasion. The market resolves N/A if no invasion of Greenland occurs by the end of Trump's current term.
Background
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has maintained a long-standing goal of reunification. The Chinese government has not ruled out the use of force to achieve this goal, though military analysts debate the likelihood and timing of any potential invasion.
Greenland is a largely self-governing territory of Denmark with strategic importance due to its location and natural resources. There are currently no credible indications of any nation planning to invade Greenland.
1,000Incidentally also have an answer here which is linked to this: https://manifold.markets/MalachiteEagle/what-will-be-the-warning-signs-in-t-n66uC0yON5
"The US attacks a NATO member"
My thought when creating this was that there might be some causality here due to the instability following the probable dissolution of NATO