The 2024 Saxony state election is on September 1.
Resolves YES if the AfD party gets at least a third of the seats after the election.
Resolves NO if they get less than a third of the seats.
Getting a third of the seats means a lot more influence.
1,000
3.00@marktwse Is the focus on 1/3 of the seats or infuence?
Because 1/3 means 30 seats as it is the case right now. But for influence (I assume you mean "block constitution changes") you need 30+1 otherwise the others have the 2/3 sufficient minority.
I assumed the motivation of creating the question was a significant shift in power of extreme right parties.
@Leonox Yes, I probably should have asked for 1 more seat, but the question is explicitly about the seats.
They currently poll at (only) 30%, but it turns out the Saxony election rules have an interesting twist: There is a primary vote for a specific person and a secondary vote for a party. The primary vote winner of each district will always get into the parliament, even if the party's secondary votes determine a lower percentage of the seats (Überhangmandate). In most cases, the other parties get additional seats to correct the seat percentage according to the secondary votes (Ausgleichsmandate). In Saxony, they limited the second part to limit the size of the parliament. So there is a chance, the AfD gets more seats than secondary votes.
Heard in this podcast: https://lage.link/ldn/379 at 1:02:55