The current german parliement, the Bundestag, has the CSU party and together with the CDU, they are called the "Union". The CSU only exist in Bavaria and the CDU covers the other states.
CSU got 5.2% in the last election. A party has to reach at least 5% to get in. Legislation has been passed to reduce the seats in the Bundestag. The CSU opposed that law and is sueing against it because they fear the 5% barrier.
Resolves YES if a party called "CSU" is elected into the 21th Bundestag.
Resolves NO if CDU and CSU merge into something not called "CSU". Also resolves NO if CSU fails to achieve 5%.
Close date might be adapted to the election date.
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The constitutional court has reinstated the basic mandate rule (you get full proportional representation if you win 3+ constituencies) for the next election (after which the legislature should have another look at this), and it seems very unlikely that the CSU will not 3+ local mandates
@Unown As far as I understand, constituency seats are only allocated if they're covered by the proportional vote share.
https://www.deutschlandfunk.de/wahlrechtsreform-wie-der-bundestag-verkleinert-werden-soll-100.html