Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) receives at least 5% of the party list votes ("Zweitstimme") in the next German federal election. It will resolve to "No" otherwise.

The official result will be determined by the Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin). Verification can be made via the official website at https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/. If the party meets the threshold through winning three constituencies despite failing the 5% party list vote, the market will still resolve to "Yes."

Background

In the German federal election held on February 23, 2025, the conservative socialist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) received 4.98% of the party list votes, narrowly failing to reach the 5% threshold required for parliamentary representation. As a result, the party did not secure seats in the 21st Bundestag.

The next federal election is scheduled to occur on or before March 25, 2029, though a snap election could be called earlier if the Bundestag is dissolved under the conditions set out in the German Basic Law. This market concerns the next occurrence of the German federal election.

This description was generated by AI.