Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point prior to January 1, 2031, an active member of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is officially appointed as the Federal Chancellor of Germany (Bundeskanzler/in) under the German Basic Law (Grundgesetz).

Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Key Details & Edge Cases:

• The chancellor must be a registered member of the AfD at the time of taking office. An independent or member of another party supported by an AfD coalition does not satisfy this condition.

• The official appointment by the Federal President of Germany, as documented by the Federal Chancellery (bundeskanzler.de), will serve as the primary source of truth.

Background

In the February 2025 German snap federal election, the AfD achieved 20.8% of the vote, becoming the second-largest party in the Bundestag behind the CDU/CSU led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz. The party has continued to show electoral strength in regional contests, notably securing 43.8% of the vote in the Saxony-Anhalt state election in September 2026. Currently, mainstream German political parties maintain a "firewall" (Brandmauer) rejecting coalition governments with the AfD, presenting a significant barrier to the party securing the chancellorship without winning an outright parliamentary majority.

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