Kimi/Moonshot seems pretty promising, regardless. It's odd - to a few Internet friends I have in China, DeepSeek is just one AI company that faces steep competition from several other Chinese labs, but in the West it's gotten the vast majority of the attention.
Not an expert in the field by any means, but these benchmarks seem pretty impressive - https://github.com/MoonshotAI/Kimi-k1.5

I'm getting a client-side error when I try to bet yes on one of the lowest ones, whether it's a limit or market order - anyone know what's happening?

@redcathode okay, looks like there was just no liquidity/orders. fixed it by placing a no limit order and then buying the opposite side from myself? hopefully it'll get more attention, at least

Betting against Deepseek is like betting against China

@CraigDemel yes

@CraigDemel also: https://x.com/hsu_steve/status/1918253195127652750?t=pnzvnOqiNo4FXsicryQ_vA&s=19

OpenAI is nearly guaranteed to be first by inertia.

Even if GPT-5 is surpassed in fall/winter 2025.

The prevalence of ChatGPT will inherently be much higher than Gemini, Grok, Claude, or Deepseek

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

See Google Trends

US: last year

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok

Worldwide: last 90 days

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&q=ChatGPT,Deepseek,Gemini,Claude,Grok

As of now it's clearly

1. ChatGPT + Deepseek on Jan 28th (only because of NVDA stock)

2. Deepseek (deflated due to lack of servers) + Gemini (mostly due to integration into android + Google)

3. Grok (rising with Grok 3 release + integration to X)

4. Claude (may rise with release of Claude 4)

@ChinmayTheMathGuy I think OpenAI will be first as long as GPT-5 gets released by the end of the year, which seems pretty likely: https://manifold.markets/ManifoldAI/when-will-openai-broadly-release-th.

@mods maybe this can resolve by poll or something

@ismellpillows I think it resolves at the end of 2025

@ismellpillows Resolve by google trends is also a good choice. Currently ambiguous.

I can't bet on this without getting errors

Is there a way to get the 4 huggingfaces combined?

I wonder what happened to this market? A month ago it was barely getting any trades. Now it is constantly flying around with extremely different values for each contender. Just look at that graph!

@Gigacasting Could you edit the "Deepmind" entry to be Google Deepmind? Right now there's "Deepmind", which seems to be heavily traded, and way down there is "Google". Probably the "Google" one should N/A so there isn't confusion.

@ChrisPrichard Done. Unfortunately Gigacasting has left manifold for many months. Imo the market should be taken over by mods and we should clarify the resolution criteria because they are very subjective and the market creator is probably not going to return

@Bayesian Oh yeah - given the subjective nature here,the resolution is a bit of a mess if there isn't one disinterested party.

@ChrisPrichard gigacasting is active

@jim oh wow. good to know

turns out this seems like a myth / illusion bc of some limit orders being filled and/or bugs

@jim How do you know gigacasting is active? If it's because it says he bet recently that is not reliable info, check the markets in question and his bets aren't there

@Bayesian yeah i was probably wrong

Surely Nvidia more than Stability for 2022. Nvidia 100% counts as an AI lab.

Can Cognition be added? They just debuted their first model Devin 2 months ago, I think they'll see phenomenal growth in the next year