What will be the top-3 AI labs in 2025?
Mini
158
แน€59k
2026
34%
OpenAI
27%
Anthropic
14%
Google Deepmind
9%
Meta
5%
XAI
5%
Other
3%
Singularity Net
1%
Apple
1%
NVIDIA

2022 would resolve as OpenAI, Deepmind, ???

**revised: OpenAI, Stability.AI, Deepmind

Based on social media buzz, search trends, etc. โ€” i.e. purely on buzz/prestige

50/30/20 resolution to the most impactful in public opinion during the year

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I wonder what happened to this market? A month ago it was barely getting any trades. Now it is constantly flying around with extremely different values for each contender. Just look at that graph!

bought แน€1 Apple YES

@Gigacasting Could you edit the "Deepmind" entry to be Google Deepmind? Right now there's "Deepmind", which seems to be heavily traded, and way down there is "Google". Probably the "Google" one should N/A so there isn't confusion.

@ChrisPrichard Done. Unfortunately Gigacasting has left manifold for many months. Imo the market should be taken over by mods and we should clarify the resolution criteria because they are very subjective and the market creator is probably not going to return

@Bayesian Oh yeah - given the subjective nature here,the resolution is a bit of a mess if there isn't one disinterested party.

@ChrisPrichard gigacasting is active

@jim oh wow. good to know

turns out this seems like a myth / illusion bc of some limit orders being filled and/or bugs

@jim How do you know gigacasting is active? If it's because it says he bet recently that is not reliable info, check the markets in question and his bets aren't there

@Bayesian yeah i was probably wrong

bought แน€1 NVIDIA YES

Surely Nvidia more than Stability for 2022. Nvidia 100% counts as an AI lab.

Can Cognition be added? They just debuted their first model Devin 2 months ago, I think they'll see phenomenal growth in the next year

bought แน€1 Other YES

Could we add xAI?

OpenAI

i legit didn't see the 50/30/20 thing, invested way too much, but always figured i would be able to get out before 2025... i don't really understand limit orders. anyone have any advice for withdrawing some of my money from this market?

@Gigacasting Does Deepmind include the entire Google operation? (Deep Brain, Google Brain or whatever it's called now)

Deepseek is about to release 145B MoE