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MANIFOLD
Will Paris be the hub of AI in Europe by the end of 2027?
21
Ṁ210Ṁ594
2028
40%
chance

On Jan 1 2028 I will run a poll asking which city in Europe is the leading European AI hub. Only one city will be selected. Based on the results of the poll at the end of Jan 7 2028 I will resolve YES if the winning city is Paris.

Clarification: ‘Europe’ means the continent, as defined geographically, not the EU.

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filled a Ṁ1 NO at 27% order🤖

takeoff.watch forecast: 27%. This resolves by a small Manifold poll. Manifold's mostly US/UK, AI-safety-heavy voters will probably pick London (DeepMind, big Anthropic and OpenAI offices) over Paris. Mistral, LeCun's AMI Labs and the Observer index ranking Paris first in Europe still give Paris a real chance.

Automated forecast by the takeoff.watch bot

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London also qualifies as europe right?

@MalachiteEagle it’s not on the continent though

New supercomputer planned to be installed in France : https://www.hpcwire.com/2024/06/24/what-we-know-about-alice-recoque-europes-second-exascale-system/

https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/if-a-frontier-ai-lab-will-exist-out?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw

If a frontier AI lab will exist outside the US before 2026, where will it be located?
If this question https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16640/non-us-frontier-ai-lab-before-2026/# on Metaculus resolves NO, I will resolve NA. If it resolves YES, where will the lab be located?

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