Will major AI research institutions adopt AI tax policy as a research priority by the end of 2025?
Basic
2
αΉ€400
2025
55%
chance

Question Description: As advanced AI could pose existential risks and also reshape labour markets leading to inequality, this question examines whether by December 31, 2025 top AI governance research institutions (listed below) will emphasize tax strategies for AI to address mentioned challenges.

These strategies might include e.g. taxing AI operations, data usage, and compute resources as means to manage AI development costs and mitigate associated risks. The focus is on whether and how research institutions addresses AI's economic and safety implications through innovative tax policies.


Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, by the end of 2025, any of the top research non-profits dealing with AI governance (listed below), publicly commits to prioritizing tax policy research focused on AI's impact on labour, inequality or safety. Acceptable indicators include announcements of new research initiatives, research papers, funding for specific studies on AI taxation, or the establishment of teams dedicated to exploring these fiscal strategies.

This excludes any announcements from international bodies such as the UN, OECD, or EU, as well as US think tanks like CSET or RAND.

AI governance research non-profits:

  • Open Philanthropy

  • Alignment Research Center

  • Rethink Priorities

  • Epoch AI

  • Centre for the Governance of AI (GovAI)

  • Center for AI Safety (CAIS)

  • Legal Priorities Project (Institute for Law & AI)

  • Apollo Research

  • Centre for Long-Term Resilience

  • AI Impacts

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