Will causality be an important ingredient in major commercial applications of AI by the end of 2025?
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2026
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Causality as in Judea Pearl's do-calculus and the area of research building on it. Will major successful AI products (equivalent in importance in public discourse and potential economic impact to today's large language models) be shown to crucially rely on causality research, e.g. causal representation learning, by the end of 2025?
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Note that GFlowNets can be used for causal discovery, so this is tangentially related to this market: https://manifold.markets/mariopasquato/gflownet-becomes-mainstream-by-the?r=bWFyaW9wYXNxdWF0bw
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