Will Twitter surpass YouTube as a video platform by 2030?

Ṁ768

Ṁ550

2029

chance

ALL

Will the total amount of time that twitter's users spend watching videos on twitter (not via youtube embeds) exceed the total amount of time that youtube's users spend watching videos on youtube?

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The contender will probably be called "X Video" or something, instead of "twitter", and this changes nothing. This is now a market about X Video.

predicts NO

@makoyass thank goodness

@makoyass

predicts NO

@makoyass

sold Ṁ14 of YES

Bonfirenetworks.org is a shockingly good piece of software and due to a subtle combination of features I expect it to displace twitter (and this knowledge is a great burden)

bought Ṁ10 of NO

YouTube estimated total watchtime to be in the order of gigahours/day in 2017 and I doubt that's been recently decreasing: https://blog.youtube/news-and-events/you-know-whats-cool-billion-hours/

BBC reported estimates in 2021 that UK/US users daily watchtime/platform DAU was higher on TikTok than YouTube, though YouTube still dominates watchtime in total due to substantially higher DAU: https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-58464745

predicts NO

@nfd ...so a company that previously killed its video-sharing platform due to financial issues would need to substantially overcome not only two of its direct short-form content competitors, both with very deep network effects, on its way to beating the most entrenched long-or-shortform video sharing (i.e. deeply expensive to operate) platform in the world? And that company is currently dealing with heavy legal, financial, and PR issues? It's an uphill battle at best.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

I don't think it's very likely, since the twitter userbase is currently smaller than the youtube userbase, and its main advantage would be positional rather than technical - it seems unlikely to me that anyone can far exceed youtube's recommender algorithm, and although there are some kinds of curation work that the algorithm cannot do as well as a twitterlike can, unless twitter has been censoring youtube links (quite probable!), it doesn't seem that way.
It's complicated, it could happen, idk yet.

predicts YES

A point in their favor: They have vine, they've said they're planning on bringing it back, youtube shorts seems to be, visionlessly, doing some trashy tiktok stuff, vine might come out as the stronger brand.

Are those numbers publicly available?

@Yev Kind of? We know user counts, and we know view counts. I imagine someone will do the research and develop an estimate and I'll be able to find them (there is a very large, financed, communicative audience for those stats).