Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the total Assets Under Management (AUM) for all U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) explicitly categorized by major financial data providers (such as Bloomberg, ETFdb, or Morningstar) as "prediction market ETFs" is greater than $0 as of the close of market on August 31, 2026. If no such ETFs have achieved SEC approval and active trading status by this date, the market will resolve to "No".

The resolution will be determined based on official data from the issuers or verified AUM reports provided by major financial media outlets or ETF tracking services. If the status of these ETFs is ambiguous due to ongoing regulatory reviews or lack of clear categorization by the end of the date, the resolution will rely on whether any such fund is publicly trading and holding assets as of the specified deadline.

Background

In early 2026, several asset management firms, including Roundhill Financial, GraniteShares, and Bitwise (under the brand "PredictionShares"), filed registration statements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch ETFs tied to prediction market event contracts. These proposed products are designed to provide investors with exposure to binary outcomes, such as the results of U.S. presidential and congressional elections, through traditional brokerage accounts. Unlike traditional ETFs that hold a portfolio of securities, these funds propose to hold derivative event contracts, creating an "all-or-nothing" payoff structure. As of early 2026, these filings were subject to ongoing regulatory review, and their approval remains a key factor in the development of this asset class.

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Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the numerical AUM (in millions of USD) of all U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) explicitly categorized by major financial data providers—such as Bloomberg, ETFdb, or Morningstar—as "prediction market ETFs" at the close of market on August 31, 2026.

If no such ETFs are publicly trading and holding assets as of this date, the market will resolve to 0. The resolution will be based on verified AUM reports from the fund issuers or major financial media outlets. If the categorization of a fund is ambiguous, the creator will make a final determination based on the fund's stated investment objective in its SEC-filed prospectus.

Background

As of early 2026, several asset management firms have submitted registration statements to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch ETFs tied to prediction market event contracts. These proposed products aim to offer investors exposure to binary outcomes, such as election results, via traditional brokerage accounts by holding derivative event contracts. As of April 2026, these filings are under regulatory review, and their eventual approval and public trading status remain subject to SEC action.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.