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MANIFOLD
Will Matt Levine write about "a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund" before 2026-11-07?
2
Ṁ1kṀ155
resolved Oct 17
Resolved
YES

On the Money Stuff column on 7th November, Matt Levine wrote:

“Design a product for retail investors who want to use prediction markets as a savings device” strikes me as a very good exercise for the reader, and I expect that within two years I will be writing about a buy-and-hold prediction-markets exchange-traded fund.

Will this prediction come true?

Resolves Yes if Matt Levine talks about the existence of prediction market ETFs on Money Stuff, or an 'equivalent' outlet (eg. Money Stuff gets bought out from Bloomberg by another news organisation, or spins off into a separate blog/substack which is Matt Levine's primary outlet. Basically not if he tweets about it or mentions it off-hand in an interview or podcast or something), as one of the 'main stories' and not under 'Things happen' (or equivalent)

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Resolving YES. The main story in Money Stuff on 13 July 2026 (ETFs Are for Bets) was about a proposed ETF that bets on Kalshi event contracts. It's actively managed rather than buy-and-hold, but the criteria only need him to write about prediction-market ETFs as a main story.