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MANIFOLD
Will any tokenized basket or index investment product exceed $1 billion in AUM by the end of 2027?
2
Ṁ1kṀ150
2027
47%
chance

Background

Tokenized investment products may eventually provide blockchain-native access to diversified public-market exposure. This question asks whether such products achieve institutional-scale assets.

Resolution Criteria

This question resolves YES if, on or before 2027-12-31, any tokenized basket, index, ETF-like, or diversified equity investment product exceeds $1 billion USD equivalent in assets under management (AUM).

For resolution purposes:

  • The product must provide diversified exposure to public equity.

  • The product must be available in production to external investors.

  • Eligible structures include:

    • tokenized ETFs,

    • tokenized index funds,

    • basket tokens,

    • tokenized SMAs,

    • or comparable diversified equity products.

  • AUM may include:

    • onchain net asset value,

    • offchain custodied backing assets,

    • issuer-reported fund assets,

    • or tokenized share-class assets.

Acceptable resolution sources include issuer disclosures, blockchain analytics, fund reports, custodian reports, or regulatory filings.

Fine Print

The following do NOT count:

  • Stablecoins;

  • Treasury-token products;

  • Money-market funds;

  • Single-stock token wrappers;

  • Pure derivatives without diversified investment exposure.

Off-chain custody with on-chain token representation counts as tokenization.

Market context
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