Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the date the first prediction market-themed Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) begins trading on a major U.S. stock exchange (e.g., NYSE, NASDAQ).

• Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the fund issuer or documentation from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) confirming the ETF has commenced trading.

• For the purpose of this market, an ETF is defined as an investment vehicle registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 that trades on a national securities exchange.

• If multiple such ETFs are announced, this market resolves to the date the first one officially begins trading.

• If no such ETF has launched by the date specified in the market, this market will resolve based on the status at that time.

Background

Prediction markets allow participants to trade on the outcomes of future events. While these markets have existed in various forms—such as decentralized protocols or political betting platforms—a dedicated ETF would mark a significant integration into traditional financial infrastructure. Industry watchers are monitoring potential filings with the SEC that attempt to provide exposure to prediction market activity, either through direct investment in related platforms or via synthetic strategies. Regulatory approval for such products remains a key hurdle, as the SEC evaluates investor protection and the nature of the underlying assets.

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