What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?
Basic
44
Ṁ21k
resolved Nov 2
Resolved
YES
Is a woman
Resolved
YES
Is an ethnic minority
Resolved
YES
Became an MP in 2017 or later
Resolved
YES
Represents a seat in England
Resolved
YES
Supported Leave in the 2016 referendum
Resolved
YES
Born in 1980 or later
Resolved
YES
Was a candidate in the July–September 2022 leadership election
Resolved
YES
Has been a candidate in any previous Conservative leadership election
Resolved
YES
Is an MP
Resolved
NO
Became an MP in 2010 or earlier
Resolved
NO
Has a majority of > 10,000 votes
Resolved
NO
Runner-up in their constituency are the Lib Dems
Resolved
NO
Has held a Great Office of State (PM/Chancellor/Home Sec/Foreign Sec)
Resolved
NO
Is a former Prime Minister
Resolved
NO
Co-wrote Britannia Unchained (Truss/Kwarteng/Patel/Raab/Skidmore)
Resolved
NO
Their constituency borders exactly two Labour-held ones.
Resolved
NO
Runner-up in their constituency are Reform UK

This market is about the next leader of the Conservative and Unionist Party in the United Kingdom (after Rishi Sunak); once the next leader is chosen, every statement that applies to them will resolve YES and every statement that is false about them will resolve NO. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, that doesn't matter, but if the party ceases to exist, everything will resolve N/A.

Feel free to add your own answers; I reserve the right to remove any that are duplicates, ambiguous or offensive.

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bought Ṁ30 Born in 1980 or later YES

It's funny how this market has collapsed down to a bunch of "is Kemi Badenoch" answers. You'd expect to have some "is Robert Jenrick" but that hasn't happened. (Apart from the ones that are YES no matter what)

Is a woman

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman, respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

All three are female.

opened a Ṁ500 Is an ethnic minority NO at 65% order

@Lexer interesting. I'm generally betting on "nobody really has a clue at this point" and moving things closer to base rates. I've put a couple of limit orders on "female" and "ethnic minority" if you're interested

Born in 1980 or later

According to media reports and betting odds, the three frontrunners are Badenoch, Mordaunt, and Braverman,

respectively.

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-conservative-leader-after-rishi-sunak

https://www.politico.eu/article/the-next-tory-leadership-contest-has-already-started/

Badenoch and Braverman were born in 1980, while Mordaunt was born in the 70s.

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