Will we have cold fusion by 2030?
8
120
Ṁ198Ṁ190
2029
8%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ200 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@adele it means operational power plants that can replace most power sources we're currently using. To be specific, we don't need to have the plants literally running, but there has to be enough confidence in whatever fusion technique discovered that such plans will be underway.
bought Ṁ75 of NO
@levifinkelstein thanks! Would such plants still count if they're using muon-catalyzed fusion? (Is credibly demonstrated to work at room temperature, but requires muons which take lots of energy to make)
@adele I don't know much about cold fusion. But it would count so long as it's fusion and has the promised mega energy production capabilities that people describe cold fusion as having. So if it's not the magic power production wand promised it doesn't count.
Related questions
Related questions
Conditional on room temp superconductors by the end of the year, will we have commercial nuclear fusion by 2030?
33% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2032?
27% chance
Will the USA acquire a fusion reactor before 2031?
27% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2031?
25% chance
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
10% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2050?
81% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2029?
20% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2033?
30% chance
Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035?
30% chance
Will we get fusion reactors before 2038?
50% chance