Will gravity still exist on Jan 1 2025?
20
390Ṁ1548
resolved Nov 28
Resolved as
94%

This market is based on: https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-gravity-still-exist-on-jan-1-2

Resolves prob to market when the price has been stable +/- 3% for 1 week.

Created as a proof of concept that these types of markets have equilibria close to the true odds and far from 50%. - @JonathanRay

Science
Self-resolving
Unranked
Unsubsidized
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ27
2Ṁ4
3Ṁ1
4Ṁ0
5Ṁ0

People are also trading

Will I be alive at the end of 2025?
99% chance
Will gravity still exist after making these new technologies after 2025?
93% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
Will the moon still exist on March 15th, 2039?
95% chance
Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?
26% chance
Will General Relativity be overturned as our best understanding of large-scale physics before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?
13% chance
Will a person get lost in space by 2035?
16% chance
Will physicsgre.com still exist intact (early threads not deleted) by EOY 2033?
59% chance
Sort by:
predictedYES

Price has been stable for much longer than a week, please resolve.

@LeatherComputer

@levifinkelstein please resolve

predictedYES

import antigravity

Looks like the price has been stable at 94% for > 1 week.

Same resolution criterion (ignoring insignificant details):

predictedNO

@roma but... what about the Schelling point? 🤔

@levifinkelstein Ah, that's what it called! Was thinking about this concept since all this has started.

Does the close date get extended on 1/1/25 or does it resolve to the prob at close?

@Joshua it gets extended until it's time to resolve

People are also trading

Will I be alive at the end of 2025?
99% chance
Will gravity still exist after making these new technologies after 2025?
93% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
20% chance
Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
Will the moon still exist on March 15th, 2039?
95% chance
Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?
26% chance
Will General Relativity be overturned as our best understanding of large-scale physics before the end of 2025?
5% chance
Will a new fundamental physical force be discovered by January 1, 2040?
13% chance
Will a person get lost in space by 2035?
16% chance
Will physicsgre.com still exist intact (early threads not deleted) by EOY 2033?
59% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy