Will General Relativity be overturned as our best understanding of large-scale physics before the end of 2025?
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20
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2026
6%
chance

Physical evidence for a modified gravity theory, or discovery of a new theory that better explains existing evidence, or discovery of evidence that disproves GR without a new theory all count.

GR does not have to be totally replaced, and a GR-compatible Grand Unified Theory doesn't count.

Resolved based on my interpretation of expert consensus.

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If something like shape dynamics becomes the new consensus, would you resolve YES? Or would you consider it an "interpretation" of GR?

predicts YES

@mariopasquato If shape dynamics becomes the new consensus due to progress on quantum gravity using it, then no. If shape dynamics becomes the new consensus based on a difference in predicted macroscopic observations, yes.

@IzaakWeiss Ok thanks for the clarification!