resolves prob to market when the price has been stable +/- 3% for 1 week. Created as a proof of concept that these types of markets have equilibria close to the true odds and far from 50%.
[edit: of course, if stability is never achieved it resolves in acordance with observing the answer to the question in the title]
Made a version of the market without the detail Jonathan added
https://manifold.markets/levifinkelstein/will-gravity-still-exist-on-jan-1-2-baa65d70319b
WARNING WARNING WARNING:
@JonathanRay just scammed all the no bettors by randomly introducing breaking changes to the resolution criteria AFTER people have already invested considerable amounts. Consider reporting this market.
"these types of markets have equilibria close to the true odds and far from 50%."
Depends what you mean by "close" and depends what you mean by "odds". The true percentage for this market is 100% (to the level of precision I'm prepared to round to). Unfortunately in terms of odds, that's undefined.
If this market resolves below 99%, I think that's much closer to 50/50 than it is to the true odds.
@jacksonpolack I don't think it matters. Historical matters always have uncertainty. People could be misremembering on January 2.
@JonathanRay wtf? That literally changes the resolution criteria completely. Please take that back, otherwise you've literally just scammed everyone who just bet.
Is this also how the AI Doom market will resolve if there is no consensus by december 31st?
@JonathanRay Should resolve to N/A in that case imo, if you want to test how this plays out normally
@Joshua If my AI doom market does not achieve stability, it will resolve the same as the other 2100 AI doom market.
@levifinkelstein actually having observed the answer to the question in the title would of course be sufficient for resolution of any market. The description just adds the potential for early resolution.
@JonathanRay alright, so now one of two things will happen.
This market gets N/A'd or you return my mana.
What you did is established as OK and I do it on repeat to farm mana.
@JonathanRay I think resolving based on observations on 1st January 2025 is unreasonable and completely undermines the experiment. It's not really a self-resolving market anymore if it resolves depending on actual world events.
(I also think resolving based on your own judgement is just as unreasonable.)
@JonathanRay That's the default, but if you specify alternate resolution criteria in the description, people are going to take them as overruling the defaults.