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MANIFOLD
Will leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
8
Ṁ427Ṁ491
2050
29%
Yes
3%
No, replaced with leap minutes
25%
No, replaced with leap hours
38%
No, civil time based on atomic time (e.g. TAI) and fully decoupled from Earth rotation
3%
No, civil time based on Earth rotation (e.g. UT1) and fully decoupled from atomic time
3%
Something else

(If they're replaced by leap minutes, there will be around one every few decades, and if they're replaced by leap hours, there will be around one every couple millennia.)
Resolves based on what the rules are on 31 December 2050, regardless of how many or how few leap seconds/minutes/hours are actually added or subtracted.
They don't have to be implemented as extra seconds/minutes/hours as today -- smoother adjustments would also count.

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https://www.bipm.org/en/cgpm-2026/resolution-5 (though in principle it might change again before the end of 2050 so I'm not resolving the market yet)

filled a Ṁ10 NO at 38% order

Great market

Leap seconds have been around since 1972 (or 52 years)