Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?

1kṀ1780

2030

26%

chance

ALL

For the purposes of this market, "artificial gravity" means that an occupant of the space station can walk, similar to how they could on earth. I'm quite open to suggestions on how to make the resolution criteria more specific.

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For how long does it have to maintain "artificial gravity"? Maybe specify a threshold g value? does simulating lunar gravity count?

predictedYES

Not a high probability, but would the top of a space elevator count?

With that title and 31% odds I thought I was about to fleece some wide-eyed futurists. For reference, I really don't think centrifugal force based arrangements qualify as "artificial gravity."

@AndrewHartman what kind of arrangements would qualify for you?

predictedNO

@jonny As another data point, I have always included centrifugal force generated in a spinning structure in microgravity in 'artificial gravity' as it is the only practical solution we have. I have seen many others refer to it as that too.

@WXTJ Me too :)

Vast has been making waves lately, they have a few planned stations that could resolve this market. First element is set to launch August 2025 on a falcon 9.

https://www.vastspace.com/roadmap?s=09

Does 'space station' specifically mean an artificial construction in a stable orbit that a spacecraft can trade cargo/passengers with? Does it require docking capabilities while also maintaining 'artificial gravity'? (I'm hoping for 'no' on that second point.)

@Duncn I can’t say I had a particularly nailed down definition of a space station in mind, but yours seems good to me. Broadly something in space capable of sustaining human life but not capable of taking off/landing on the earth of its own volition.

I guess for your second point I’ll say “no” - an environment that allows astronauts to walk approximately normal doesn’t have to be maintained during docking procedures.

predictedYES

@jonny "not capable of taking off/landing on the earth of its own volition" seems potentially restrictive, as it would be reasonable for a single-use rocket to be one of the first things that could qualify as a space station (i.e. primarily constructed on the ground, launched as a unit, and using large portions -- such as a spent stage -- as a counterweight. Likewise, a limited-use space station might well be designed to be deorbited largely intact. How about 'intended for multiple launches'?