Will someone tell me how many children I need to guarantee at least 90% probability of one with higher IQ than me
11
90Ṁ392
resolved Dec 3
Resolved
NO

It will of course hinge on some empiricism, like the heritability of IQ. You can either take some reasonable number based on the literature or have it be an unknown in your formula/simulation. You can assume the environment I will raise them in will be the average environment for some reasonable population.

Something something order statistic of bivariate normal distribution probably doesn't have a nice closed form solution so you'll have to estimate it, which should be quite easy.

A valid submission will include: a mathematical function or code function to calculate the number of children to get a probability of at least 'p' that at least one of the children will have IQ at least 'A'.

The function parameters should be:

  • A and B: me and my partner's IQ

  • H: the heritability of IQ

  • p: the target probability.

You also need to calculate the number for these specific values:
A=140

B=130

H=0.6

p=0.9

Market resolves YES if someone posts a valid submission in the comments by market close, otherwise resolves NO.

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