Resolves to the side (YES or NO) which has the most positions.
Resolves to the side (YES or NO) which has the most positions.
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1.1kṀ4089resolved Jun 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
So at market close, if there are more YES positions (people holding YES shares) than NO positions it resovles YES and vice versa.
If it's a tie it resolves N/A
No accounts will be excluded from the count.
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This is a funny coordination puzzle, whichever clique of people can coordinate to swap sides the best right before closing will stand to gain quite a bit from the side that switched incorrectly.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.