Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?
13
100Ṁ472
2026
65%
chance
18

At EOY 2026 I will ask @Bayesian , @TimothyJohnson5c16 , @Joshua , @Ziddletwix , and @nikki whether they believe it has. If after a week any disagree this question will resolve NO. Otherwise, it will resolve YES.

If any of the users is unreachable, they will not be taken into account for the resolution.

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https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/funsearch-making-new-discoveries-in-mathematical-sciences-using-large-language-models/

https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/discovering-new-solutions-to-century-old-problems-in-fluid-dynamics/

Related. I have no idea what counts though as there's no criteria specified. Some discoveries were definitely made, there was a lot of human labour in the process though, it's not an AI agent acting on it's own accord and solving problems. I'd say the discoveries were made by humans using AI as a tool, but again, that's semantics and I'm not sure what the question is asking.

Does maths count

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